Category: Sports

It seems that the NFL has pretty much decided that the Saints will not be in New Orleans next year.

Neither Dave nor I will root for the San Antonio Saints or the Los Angeles Saints, so it’s time to pick a new favorite team. I’ve put up a poll to get some feedback. Let your voice be heard.

Just know that if you vote for some team deemed “impossible to root for” by Dave or me, then your vote will just be discounted. “Impossible to root for” teams include, but are not limited to, the Ravens, the Dolphins, the Texans, the Bucs, the Chiefs, and the Rams.

Point spreads are determined in an effort to attract an equal amount of action (money wagered) on each team. For example, if the Colts are playing the Texans, odds makers will make Indy a 17-point favorite, or Colts -17, or Colts 17. This means if you bet on the Colts, they must win by more than 17 (42-3, 45-20, etc.) Then, of course, if you take Houston +17, the Texans must not lose by more than 17 (21-17, etc.). If the game ends with a 17-point margin of victory (24-7), the game is considered a push or tie. No money is lost by either party.

Most wagers also require a 10% house fee, juice or vig. To win $50 on the Colts, you would need to bet $55. Ofen, the juice will increase or decrease instead of the line moving. Again, this is all designed to maintain an equal amount of action on each side or team.

From a former bookie, the best piece of advice I can give you is to remember there’s a lot more people that know a lot more than you do whose job it is to make these point spreads. Casinos will never lose. The public is a Meatnormous Loser when it comes to betting on sports. Use that to your advantage. Don’t be afraid go against what appears to be the obvious bet. Look for lines that look strange or too good to be true. Bet on small underdogs (Redskins +2 at the Giants) and take the big favorites (Steelers -10 at Baltimore). And always bet the same amount on a very limited number of games.

Please note that my picks are who’s going to win, not who is going to cover the spread. The lines are just there to help us get a feel for how the teams match up. My picks are in bold.

• Arizona at Dallas (-9.5) – Nine and a half? Sounds about right to me. Julius is out again this week, but does Arizona even have a running back? I’m still pissed that my fantasy sleeper pick JJ Arrington was a total bust. Go Boys.
• Chicago at Detroit (-3) – Battle of the bads. There’s so much wasted talent on the Lions, and only a little wasted talent on the Bears, since they actually use Thomas Jones. I’d like to say that Jeff Garcia will lead the team to 8-8 but not get them into the playoffs, but 8-8 is dominant in the NFC North. I’m taking the Lions.
• Cleveland at Houston (-1.5) – This will be the best game of the week. You have to be real bad to only get 1.5 at home over Cleveland. Houston goes 0-8 this week.
• Green Bay at Cincinnati (-10) – Carson Palmer is good. The Packers are not. I picked the Bengals to win last week at Pittsburgh, and they let me down. Maybe I should become a Bengals fan when the Saints move out of New Orleans. They have a history of of hey-we’re-almost-not-crappy-this-year too.
• Jacksonville (-4.5) at St. Louis – I still think Dave overrates the Jags, but they can beat St. Louis. Heck, the Rams needed help from the referees to beat the Saints.
• Minnesota at Carolina (-7.5) – The Vikes will do better than they have done now that Burleson is back, but it won’t be enough. They don’t have enough defense to stop Steve Smith. Also, the over/under in this game is 45. The over is my lock of the week.
• Oakland (-1) at Tennessee – Lamont finally had his big game last week. He will have another this week.
• Washington at N.Y. Giants (-1.5) – Big game for the NFC East. Eli is good, but Washington, as a team, is better. Plaxico is a wuss.
• Kansas City at San Diego (-6) – Think the Chiefs can stop LaDainian like the Eagles did last week? Me either.

I have to do two picks for the next game.

• Heart pick: Miami at New Orleans (-2.5) – Nick Saban returns to Tiger Stadium and gets booed. The Saints are determined to beat the refs and play solid, penalty-free, turnover-free football and blow the Dolphins out.
• Head pick: Miami at New Orleans (-2.5) – see the my comments above on the line in the Cleveland/Houston game.

Stupid Saints.

• Philadelphia at Denver (-3.5) – Denver is good. With no running game in Philly, the Denver defense will shutdown TO. This will be the best game of the week (besides the Browns/Texans game, of course).
• Tampa Bay (-11) at San Francisco – Here’s my upset pick of the week. Tampa Bay is overrated. I don’t think the football genes run in the Simms family like they do in the Manning family. Will the 49ers beat the line? No. Will they win? Yes.
• Buffalo at New England (-9) – The Bills are getting better since Holcomb came in, but this is New England they are playing.

So you don’t believe in the Jags? Jacksonville (4-2) owns Quality wins over of the Bengals, Seahawks and at Pittsburgh, with their losses coming to Denver and Indy. They boast a top-five defense, which held mighty Peyton Manning to only 175 yards. Also, go ahead and count on the them being in the playoffs: They don’t play another team that currently has a winning record.

I do belive in the Panthers and Bucs. Both were accidentally left off my top 10 and both are better than the Bengals and Chargers. Dallas’s division is too tough, though. Bledsoe is destined to get hurt. That said, how many good running backs did Parcells acquire?

New Top 10 NFL Teams
1. Colts
2. Steelers
3. Falcons
4. Broncos
5. Patriots
6. Eagles
7. Panthers
8. Jaguars
9. Giants
10. Bucs
Knocking on the door: Chargers, Bengals, Chiefs and Bears

AFC Playoff Teams
North: Pittsburgh
South: Indianapolis
West: Denver
East: Patriots
Wild Cards: Jacksonville, Cincinnatti

NFC Playoffs
North: Bears
South: Falcons
West: Seattle
East: Philly
Wild Cards: Panthers, Giants